For years, Poland has impressed with its dynamic growth, being increasingly cited around the world as an example of a successful transformation — and sometimes even an economic miracle. This success is no coincidence, but the result of the consistent efforts of millions of people, businesses, and institutions. In its latest report, “Poland’s moment. How it got rich, how it transforms into a smart and resilient economy,” Pekao’s experts summarize the country’s achievements to date and outline ambitious goals for the next 10 years.

Poland’s economic success: from transformation to the European elite

Poland has been recording dynamic civilizational progress for several decades. In the past 10 years alone, its GDP has grown by more than one-third — one of the highest growth rates among all EU countries — and the gap between Poland and the EU average in terms of GDP per capita has narrowed by nine percentage points. The country has achieved measurable success in the international arena, consistently increasing its share in global exports of goods and services. During this period, the value of foreign sales of goods approximately doubled, while service exports nearly tripled. Thanks to the dynamic growth of household income, Poland is gaining significance not only as a competitive production base but also as a consumer market. In recent years private consumption growth has been the fastest among the EU’s top 10 economies, and this year Poland is expected to overtake the Netherlands in nominal consumption value, entering the EU’s top five. The effects of developing a knowledge-based economy are becoming increasingly visible. The fastest-growing sector is knowledge-intensive services, and Poland is increasing its R&D activity faster than any other country in the region, climbing steadily in EU innovation rankings.

“Poland’s economic success during this period has been driven by its key competitive advantages: low labour costs alongside rising quality and productivity, a favourable location in the heart of Europe, continuous infrastructure improvements, and the country’s political, economic, and financial stability. These advantages have been reinforced by the protective mechanisms of the EU market, where Poland plays an increasingly important role. It has resulted in a continued inflow of foreign capital, strong integration into regional supply chains, a robust domestic market, and growing internationalization of Polish companies,” notes Ernest Pytlarczyk, Chief Economist at Bank Pekao S.A.

Investments – the key to the next phase of development

The authors of the report point out that Poland is on the brink of a major turning point that should — and likely will — take place in the area of investments. Until now, this area has remained overshadowed by fast-growing consumption and exports. According to the forecasts included in the report, total investment in the Polish economy may reach 1 trillion PLN by 2030. A key factor driving this growth will be large-scale transformation programmes in various areas, including: green energy transition, military security, transport infrastructure (including the CPK and high-speed rail), energy efficiency, digitalization and circular economy. “Accelerating infrastructure investments are mostly large-scale projects of strategic importance that will spur the development of many economic sectors in the coming years. But these projects are also simply necessary to develop a modern state and economy. They will form the foundation for further, more difficult stages of transformation” emphasizes Krzysztof Mrówczyński, head of industry research and co-author of the report.

Ambitious socio-economic goals for 2035

The vision for Poland in 10 years is optimistic: a wealthier, more technologically advanced, and better-connected country. “We forecast that by then, Poland’s GDP per capita may surpass that of Italy, and investment could reach 25% of GDP. Poland will also become a place of higher living standards — with Poles living an average of five years longer, wages reaching 80% of the EU average, and the housing supply gap being closed” says Piotr Bartkiewicz, PhD, co-author of the report.

Equally important will be a shift in the structure of the economy — with a larger share of high-tech industries and knowledge-based services. Poland should also increase its R&D spending to 2.5% of GDP, and its transport and energy infrastructure will fully meet Western standards. By that time, nearly 60% of electricity consumed in Poland should come from renewable energy sources. These goals are ambitious but, according to the authors, realistic — assuming a continuation of current trends, full-scale transformational efforts, and a relatively stable global environment.

Poland’s sectors of the future – powered by innovation and modernization

The report also highlights industries that may become growth engines in the coming years and form the backbone of a modern Polish economy. These include not only current export champions such as the food industry, furniture manufacturing, or plastics products — where moving up the value chain and into premium segments is desirable — but also several high-tech sectors where Poland currently lags but has strong development potential due to favourable demand conditions. These emerging sectors include IT, defence industry, pharmaceuticals and production of specialized transport equipment. Additionally, the report points to several promising new areas of competence, such as components for the renewable energy and e-mobility sectors, the space industry or semiconductor production. These are sectors that could significantly increase Poland’s added value and competitiveness on the global market.

The “Poland’s moment” report is not only a summary of impressive accomplishments but, above all, a roadmap for the next decade of economic, technological, and social transformation. Poland stands on the threshold of a new era, where investment, innovation, and sustainable development will be the pillars of lasting success.

Download the report “Poland’s moment. How it got rich, how it transforms into a smart and resilient economy” at the link: Poland's moment_EN_final_10062025.pdf